Projections for 2016

Projections for 2016

To start the new year, Lukas Neckermann posted over 30 of his more immediate projections for 2016 via Twitter.  “I’ve taken the core, long-term thinking behind The Mobility Revolution and considered what might be more immediate impacts. The 140 character limitation focuses the mind and made for a fun challenge.”  A link to all tweets was in turn published via LinkedIn Pulse.  The projections themselves are here:

  • 2016: the year we finally accept that humans are inferior drivers to #autonomous vehicles. (#selfdrivingcars instead of texting, sleeping)
  • 2016: the year of explosive growth in choice (and sales) of electric and#hybrid cars, vans trucks, buses. (#EV not #emissions)
  • 2016: the year #carsharing will go peer-to-peer, with more OEMs, leasing cos integrating it into contracts and software. Choice+Simplicity.
  • 2016: More auto manufacturers commit to either #Apple car or #Android car platforms, (or developing own) setting trajectory for #autonomous
  • 2016: the year #3DPrinting hits mainstream in #automotive@localmotorsreleased, @OSVehicle promoted. OEM supply chain turned upside down.
  • 2016: the year cities begin to better understand, plan #multimodal #transport, creating connections #bikesharing #carsharing #rail #airports
  • 2016: the year it dawns on countries and #energy companies what was committed at #COP21 – big growth in #solar#wind#energystorage
  • 2016: looking forward to booked keynote speaking events in Milan, Ludwigsburg, London, Warsaw, New York, others.#TheMobilityRevolution
  • 2016: 90% of people who test an #electriccar will buy/lease/drive one, understanding they are faster, more efficient, more comfortable.
  • 2016: a year of reckoning for midmarket auto manufacturers, forced to develop new low #emissions platforms but already late in the game.
  • 2016: the year people will see the #selfdrivingcar as life-saving & quality-of-life enriching.
  • 2016: the year that real-estate stops advertising parking-spots in residential units; instead integrates #EV #carsharing #wirelesscharging
  • 2016: the year cities begin looking into #wirelesscharging for taxis, buses and urban #transport in earnest.
  • 2016: the year the oil cartel begins to worry that keeping oil prices low still won’t kill the momentum for #electricCars #ev @TeslaMotors
  • 2016: the year the supply-chain of #lithium becomes a topic of discussion, and investors start to take notice. #gigafactory
  • 2016: Chinese carmakers will flex their muscles, illustrating technological edge over some US OEMs. @BYDCompany @NEXTEVTCR@volvocarsglobal
  • 2016: the year #automotive brands will either declare themselves #mobility providers, or are destined to become ‘just’ OEMs (like #Foxconn)
  • 2016: the year commercial vehicle fleet operators start to buy or convert to#BEV – because they soon won’t be able to drive into cities
  • 2016: the year 2 #automotive brands exit #Formula1 as it’s incompatible with their ‘greener’ image. One more joins #FormulaE #ZeroEmissions
  • 2016: the year we will see pilot projects with dynamic #wirelesscharging in parking lots… ‘Would you like fries and a charge with that?’
  • 2016: We will see announcements from most auto manufacturers for #PHEVacross entire fleet by 2022. All who don’t will see stock punished.
  • 2016: sadly, the year another 25k Americans, and just as many Europeans die in vehicle accidents. Time for #ZeroAccidents #autonomous #SDC
  • 2016: the year at least one 1st-tier supplier to #automobile manufacturers declares intention to enter production of electric vehicles. #EV
  • 2016: the year significant/reputable US or UK universities declare offering masters degree in #sharingeconomy (Economics w. concentration)
  • 2016: the year people stop calling @FaradayFuture the @TeslaMotors killer… and start calling both the automotive ‘status quo killers’
  • 2016: the year #multimodal travel planning apps like @moovel #RomeToRio and public #transport companies will go head-to-head for users.
  • 2016: the year we’ll finally be able to book #carshare #rideshare #bikeshare public #transport #rail and air travel in one app, one bill.
  • 2016: the year we see new regulations on #drones clashing with useful applications, like #drone medical services, emergency deliveries.
  • 2016: the year we learn about African countries installing Gigawatts of#microgrid #solar, leapfrogging #coal #nuclear ‘developed’ world
  • 2016: the turning point year where #solar and #wind energy become more efficient, thanks to #energystorage and in spite of low oil price.
  • 2016: the year #smartcities becomes a description of the way they#ActOnClimate and #transport, not just building #infrastructure and apps.
  • 2016: the year airports get serious on air and noise #pollution – steeper ascent/descent, banning old jets, electric ground fleet (buses)
  • 2016: the year cities, countries all over will scramble to offer #autonomous vehicle testing, seeing economic potential of AV ecosystem
  • 2016: the year we get just as excited about #ZeroEmissions #driverless motorsport, as we did about that other series. #Roborace #FormulaE
  • 2016: the year at least one #climatechange denier shuts up and begins to believe in science. (I prefer optimism around the holidays) #GOP
  • 2016: the year at least 1 automaker launches an #EV / #Hybrid brand, incl direct sales channel, to compete w #Tesla and set up own future
  • 2016: many more people will show greater loyalty to brands of #mobility apps than to the brands and logos on steering wheels. #UBER#LYFT

 



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